Maximize Invincible's Reins farming in ICC 25 Heroic!

[DrPsycho]

Hi guys!

As i hate beeing a leecher, i want to explain my strategy that i use each week for Lich King Heroic, to get his shiny Mount!
There are many players out there who dont have any idea how to maximize the farming progress, and here we go!

- As of Pandaria, all Mounts (except PVP Mounts) are BATTLE-NET Account Wide, this means EVERY Character of you can ride the Mount if you have it at least on one of them.
- To enter ICC, you have to be at least Level 80
- Lich King Heroic can be attempted even if you didnt kill the pre bosses on heroic dificulty
- You should have at least 4-5 character's ready for this, the more you have, the better are your chances.

First, you need an Lockout, and youll need it on 25-man, so go with a character that will save the lockout later, there are 2 ways you could do this.

- Clear through 25man ICC and kill Sindragosa ---> Leave after
- Clear through 25man ICC until Sindragosa and log on an alt and kill Sindragosa with it, switch to main character and kill Lich King on Heroic these Lockout

I would prefer the second way, but its your choice.

So now you have an Lockout on an character that you can expand as long as you want, which basicly means - every week.
From now on if you want to kill lich king heroic, you simply log on to your Character who has stored the Lockout, Expand it, Invite your friends and run into the Instance (you should logout the Character in front of ICC, maybe your best friend too so that you can use the summon stone there)
Now YOU have to enter the dungeon, and now everyone will be offered a 11/12 Lockout, which is great.
As soon as the first trustful person is in the Dungeon, you can give him lead and IMPORTANT: leave the DUNGEON and the RAID!!! Simply run out, leave Raid and log out.

Now the person you gave lead can invite your main character, and you can simply repeat this as often as you want - which means you can do it as long as you have free level 80 character's!

The fight against the Lich King on Level 90:

Lineup:

1 Tank (need's to be Tank for Vengeance stacking)
1 Healer (maybe who is able to dispell the plaque, but not needed - it doesnt kill on level 90)
5-7 Ranged DPS (this is important!)


- Phase 1 -

You should simply spread out in a close area and dps the lich king to 70% , just dodge the Shadow Traps, and bring the plaque into the shamblings / ghuls if you raid is good enough, if not, then it isnt that bad at all. Just dont walk into a trap, he's really dropping very fast.

- Phase 1.5 -

Run at the outside, ALL Ranged DPS have to nuke on Lich King and kill the orb's, use Bloodlust and Nuke him on ~43%, if you cant do this, then 47% or so is okay too, you have a little bit time after the first transition. But its important to NOT nuke him under 40% as he will go into another transition, bug and kill you with massive raid dps!

- Phase 2 -

If done well, this phase will only be around 10 sec.

- Phase 2.5 -

Dps the Lich King again from the outern ring, and if you can efford the DPS, just nuke him under 10% and thats it.
If you dont nuke him low enough, you will have one shadowmourne phase and at least one defile, but simply burn out all you have and you should be save.


The Drop chance for the Mount ist 1%, and after 100 run's you have a 64% chance of seeing it at least once, after 1672 run's your chance is 99,99999%
With an average pug i need around 8 min from the start to lich king beeing down, which is very fast.

And secondly, i pay the highest roller around 200 - 400k gold, if you tell them its only 8 min they will follow you as they want the gold for this little effort.

So good luck for farming the Mount, and sorry for my bad english, iam german ;-)

[brigata09]

thx for this!
I think this works for all things you want to farm...like yogg, ragnaros, illidan, kiljaeden...

[Hemorrhage]

Thanks for sharing this! +5 rep

[TehVoyager]

The Drop chance for the Mount ist 1%, and after 100 run's you have a 64% chance of seeing it at least once, after 1672 run's your chance is 99,99999%
With an average pug i need around 8 min from the start to lich king beeing down, which is very fast.

This isnt how probability works.

after 100 runs you have 64 1% chances. not a 64% chance.

after 1672 runs you have 1672 1% chances.

[Laykith]

This isnt how probability works.

after 100 runs you have 64 1% chances. not a 64% chance.

after 1672 runs you have 1672 1% chances.

after 100 runs its a 64% chance you have atleast seen it drop once.

after 1672 its a 99,99999% chance you atleast have seen it drop once.

you might be on run 4145 and not seen a single one.

[Snowee]

This isnt how probability works.

after 100 runs you have 64 1% chances. not a 64% chance.

after 1672 runs you have 1672 1% chances.

Oh dude...
He said the chance of seeing it it increases, not the real dropchance.

Example: Dropchance = 0,8%

Kill 1: 0.008 x 100.000 = 0.8%
Kill 2: 0.008 x 99.2000 = 0.7936% + 0.80000% = 1.59360%
Kill 3: 0.008 x 98.4064 = 0.7872% + 1.59360% = 2.38090%
Kill 4: 0.008 x 97,6191 = 0.7809% + 2.38090% = 3.16815%
Kill 5: 0.008 x 96.8318 = 0.7746% + 3.16815% = 3.94280%
Kill 6: 0.008 x 96.0572 = 0.7684% + 3.94280% = 4.71120%

Its called probability calculation.

[TehVoyager]

after 100 runs its a 64% chance you have atleast seen it drop once.

after 1672 its a 99,99999% chance you atleast have seen it drop once.

you might be on run 4145 and not seen a single one.

No. im sorry, you are wrong. the rest of the guide is good though.
Also, Independence (probability theory) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Oh dude...
He said the chance of seeing it it increases, not the real dropchance.

Example: Dropchance = 0,8%

Kill 1: 0.008 x 100.000 = 0.8%
Kill 2: 0.008 x 99.2000 = 0.7936% + 0.80000% = 1.59360%
Kill 3: 0.008 x 98.4064 = 0.7872% + 1.59360% = 2.38090%
Kill 4: 0.008 x 97,6191 = 0.7809% + 2.38090% = 3.16815%
Kill 5: 0.008 x 96.8318 = 0.7746% + 3.16815% = 3.94280%
Kill 6: 0.008 x 96.0572 = 0.7684% + 3.94280% = 4.71120%

Its called probability calculation.

Chance of seeing it = drop chance snowee. if there not the same thing, please, explain the difference.

[DrPsycho]

Even though your chance on each single attempt always remains the same, the probability of getting your drop over the course of multiple attempts increases. I know at first this sounds like crazy talk that contradicts what we just discussed, so another example is in order:

We're flipping our coin again. We know that we have a 50% chance of getting heads on any given toss, and it doesn't matter at all what results we got before. But I think we can all agree that if we flip a coin 100 times it's very, very likely that we'll get heads at least one of those times. The chance on the first toss is 50%, and on the 42nd toss it's 50%, and on the 100th toss it's 50%. But over the course of 100 tosses, the probability of getting heads is way more than 50%. (In fact, the chance is 99.999999999999999999999999999921% that we'll get heads at least once.)

So the more often we down a boss, the more likely we are to see the loot that we want. Instinctively we all know this, that's why we keep going back and keep going back, and eventually our persistence is rewarded. Sometimes you'll get lucky, and sometimes you'll get unlucky, and the more you try the better your odds are overall. But the chance will never be 100%. It's never guaranteed.

[crittler]

thx for this!
I think this works for all things you want to farm...like yogg, ragnaros, illidan, kiljaeden...

This is not true. I tried it with Black Temple some time ago, but my alt toon got saved on illidan as well. I contacted a gm and was told, that the flexible raid system was introduced for wrath raids and onwards. Not going back to tbc and vanilla raids. So it would work for Yogg-Saron, but not Ragnaros, Illidan or Kil'Jaeden :'(

[DrPsycho]

Hi there!

so the mount dropped for my friend tonight, but he's a crazy farmer.
he killed Lich King with alle of his Level 80+ character's this week, which meas 18 kills.

This is completly insane, farming a boss 18 times per week, instead of one times which is normal!

This works with Ulduar too, you just need to clear up to Yogg-Saron and have to kill Lord Vezax with an alt were you want to save the lockout that you can extend every week.
In my opinion its much easier to farm Yogg, than Lich King, because the fight at 90 is really funny and fast! But here's the chance you get a bad guy in your raid wo talk's to some of the keeper's!

No, this doesnt work with lockout's from Black Temple or Sunwell, you wont see it but you will be saved to a ID!

Thank's for all the rep so far!

[Marceth]

I'll have to start trying this soon

[Owning]

An easier way to get lk down quick is load yourself with 1 tank 2 heals as much range as possible.
P1 dps him down, avoid traps.
P1.5 pop hero and range burns lk ( you are trying to push another phase transit to ignore valkyres)
If done right you are on phase 2.5, continue dpsing
P3 or P4, p3. You will get ported in to frostmourne, just dps viles in air and heal. P4 just let him kill you, get rezzed by npc, kill.

[Falkeid]

Chance of seeing it = drop chance snowee. if there not the same thing, please, explain the difference.

Im interested in this aswell. My whole life must be based on a lie :O

[Hougku]

1,672 runs = 32 years.

Then again, this is useful. +rep

[Unholyshaman]

My good friend Saate spent a couple of years developing his Guide to RNG and probability in WoW, I don't think he ever finished it to the extent that he wanted it to go, but it's damn well done.

SECTION 2. COMMON MISTAKES IN DEALING WITH RNG


If you frequent WoW economic blogging sites and forums you may have seen the term ‘freetard’ come up.

This is a pejorative term used to refer to people who, being ignorant of opportunity cost (link), mistakenly believe that if they farm materials themself the item is free of cost. Here I’d like to expand on this and demonstrate how a poor understanding of chance can, and does, frequently lead people to waste ridiculous amounts of time.

I’ll also share many stories of frustration born out of these situations. (RNGtard)


MISTAKE #1 – ASSUMING THAT RANDOM IS FAIR
“Random does not remember, and random does not care”
Random does not equal fair. If an item has a 10% chance of dropping then probability states that it should take ten kills to see the item drop once. In practice this will not be the case for everyone. Some people will see the item drop ten times from ten kills and some people will not see the item drop at all in twenty kills.

This is completely normal. This is what random means.

People often make the mistake of assuming that ‘random’ means ‘fair and even distribution’. If I flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads it’s not a sign that something is broken – it’s a sign that random is working as intended!


MISTAKE #2 – ASSUMING THAT RANDOM REMEMBERS
Past random events do not influence future ones. If you were unlucky enough to kill a boss 20 times for a 10% drop, and didnt get it, then on your 21st time killing the boss your chance of getting the item is….exactly the same as it always was at 10%.

If you’re farming a 1% drop, for example the Baron’s Mount, then statistically it should take 100 kills to see 1 drop. The odds of it dropping remain the same, however, no matter if it’s your 1st kill or your 100th kill.


MISTAKE #3 – MISCALCULATING OR IGNORING THE ODDS OF AN EVENT
This one absolutely kills me. People who choose to ignore statistics and probability at the cost of their time. I can’t tell you how many times over the years I’ve cringed at hearing what someone was ‘farming’ – let me make a few honorable mentions:

A guy farming a very specific area and creature for a world drop item. Having checked wowhead for where it dropped and seeing every single creature of a specific level on the ‘dropped by’ table he proceeded to go and farm the one that dropped it .00002% of the time over the one that dropped it .00001% of the time.
A guy on the forums who reckoned that since the four items he was farming had drop rates of 12%, 15% 20% and 25% he had a 72% chance of getting at least one.
The fellow who reasoned that since he’d killed the baron 21 times so far his chances of having the mount drop soon were ‘getting better’.


MISTAKE #4 – LOOKING FOR PATTERNS WHERE NONE EXIST (TRENDS?) (SAME AS #2)
In statistics (citation needed) this mistake is also known as ‘Gamblers Fallacy’. This is the belief that in a chance based event a particular outcome may be ‘due’ based on previous outcomes. Imagine a situation in which someone flips a coin three times and gets three consecutive heads, then imagine someone saying “I’m going to call tails, because tails is due” and thats what I’m on about.

You might know people in real life who regularly gamble. Have you ever heard them say “I’m due for a big win” after a losing streak? People seem to take an almost superstitious view towards finding these patterns and insist they exist and keep wasting their money!

He also states that:

p = Probability of getting mount (i.e. 0.1%)
qq = Probability of not getting mount (i.e. 0.99%)
n = Number of attempts (i.e. 1,000 runs)

Formula:

1-(qq^n) =...