Why frozen orbs aren’t a good investment for Patch 3.3.3

[Unholyshaman]

Hey guys, thought I would post a little extract from Saate's WoW Blog: World of Warcraft with an obsessive twist. He actually notified me of his Blog update via Skype and I asked if I may post his Blog-post on MMOwned.

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Why frozen orbs aren’t a good investment



"Recent development notes have announced that in an upcoming patch an NPC named Frozo the Renowned will be added to the game. This npc, an item vendor, will trade items for your [Frozen Orb] which up until now people have been either vendoring or auctioning for not much more than vendor price.

Players will be able to trade 6 orbs in for a [Crusader Orb], 4 orbs in for a [Runed Orb] or a single orb in for a [Frost Lotus], [Eternal Air], [Eternal Earth], [Eternal Fire], [Eternal Life], [Eternal Shadow] or [Eternal Water].

A lot of people have read this and had the obvious light bulb go off in their head. I know on my server people are already spamming trade chat with ‘WTB Frozen Orb – 15g/each’. In the auction house the orbs have already normalized at around 20g/each. They’re all wrong if they think this is going to turn out to be a money maker though.

Why? There’s a number of reasons, here are two big ones..."Read More

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I myself agree with his post 100%. I have infact stated a similar opinion of sorts in one of the many, many Patch 3.3.3 threads in these very forums

Nice working breaking down the update bit by bit, it helps many people understand better. Especially those who tend to just speedread updates, picking out important points and sometimes missing others.

Although I don't hold that much faith in something like the Frozen Orbs, because I myself am on an extremely high populated server. Though it is worth a try I suppose if you dare.

Anyways good luck.

If you want my verdict on the situation, sell all your orbs now while the price is so hyper inflated. Same with your epic gems and the upcoming honor change. More honor means more gems in the market meaning a higher supply:demand ratio that is in favor of supply.

[Reflection]

...damn .

[kentril]

well there goes 1k.

But in my opinion, i give it a month, then it will even out and become a steady price, hopefully more than my 10g i bought each one for.

[shadowsx]

may it so be this, but take for example epic gems, when this first arrived (yea i know new gems is bigger then a constant trade good) but the prices started like this

1 month before patch titanium ore was 200g a stack
day of the patch, it was 600g
2 days later it was 400g
months later its died down to around 300g a stack

the gems however started at about 500g a piece, within hours crashed down to 300g and over a few months there at 200g average now.


now when this patch lands the lotus wont go down right away, and it being a constant need for them, (patch being tuesday, i major raid day for most guilds) it will take a few days to lower, by then u had already sold ur full stock of them


and hey, if all else fails, as i see it i can get stacks of these things in trade for 5g a pop (vendor price (lolretards)) and AH them for 20g, still neting a profit

[TechnoKilla]

My plan is to buy them low at say 10g each then before the patch hits there will be more people buying these and the price will be up, and the day of the patch it will rapidly decrease, due to the fact so many have a stock piled up. so I will be selling mine at around 20g each before the patch hits and double my money
Edit: This will be a guessing game on when the right time to sell is.

[Ziddy1337]

On my realm, Frozen Orbs have gone from 6g each to 25g, Eternal Fire has dropped from 40g each to 20g and frozen lotus are selling for around 20g each instead of 70g. Our server is messed up, though.

[Stans Dad]

I don't care if it's profitable or not. It's going to be WAY easier to obtain frost lotus and make my flasks for my guild! =D

Nice little guide though shaman =D +Rep for the share 6):

EDIT: Looks like i've repped you recently =O, sorry bud

[Ikekudeyg]

Not to reveal some big secret (first post I'm lurking shhh...) but people are going to want to buy frozen orbs more. If they are still low like they are on my server, about 6g each, buy as many as you can wait till the price goes up and put them back up. The logic behind that is there will be more people using them so demand goes up, they are looted from the last boss on a heroic so supply is limited to a certain number per day even with the dungeon finder. So supply goes down...can anyone else see what I'm mentioning or did i mess it up somewhere. Now that means if the price is low right now they are a good investment leading up to 3.3.3. If you can't understand that you need to pick up economics for dummies it might be at a library.

Edit for funny...Just before the patch notes hit I had put 100 of them on the AH for 10g each went to cancel the auctions but missed out right when I got to the AH they sold lol.

[Subset]

Sooo.. after reading that post, I want to quit WoW.
Thousands of Frozen Orbs. Wasted. I guess I can melt them. Again...

[Saate]

Not to reveal some big secret (first post I'm lurking shhh...) but people are going to want to buy frozen orbs more.

Now that means if the price is low right now they are a good investment leading up to 3.3.3.

You're on the right track, Ike, but seems like maybe you missed what my blog post that Shaman posted was all about. Basically frozen orbs are NOT a good investment leading up to 3.3.3 if you're thinking you can sell them for a profit after the patch.

Right now they have an inflated value because the patch notes have said that in a future patch they'll be tradeable for goods. Everyone has seen this and $$$ signs have appeared in their eyes. People are spamming trade chat with 'WTB Frozen Orbs - 15g!' or similar.

They're doing this because they think "I'll buy them now and hang onto them until the patch, then I'll use them to buy other stuff and profit!". My post is all about that being a fallacy. The only way you'll make money on frozen orbs now is selling your supply TO those people that think they'll be worth lots come 3.3.3.

[darkzippy]

The orbs are just good when you can buy them for a price aprox of 7G.
Getting lotusses, or orbs for your alts gear etc;

For reselling it will be pretty much useless, unless you're on a lucky server.
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The thing I always do when another instance/ Arena seasons etc comes available is:

- scan patch notes for changes

- make a shitload of Enchanting Vellums
When they are on AH for 50G/enchant, just dump them on it for 150G (300% price etc)
Believe me, the ones of 50G are gone in a sec, but yours for 150G will also sell due to
the high demand. Just place them on a tuesday eve at arround 12pm. Guaranteed shitload of gold on wednesday.

- you won't believe what high prices people pay when a new arena season comes out to get the comon used pvp enchants, while mats to make them are 20G, its sells for 250G. And a vellum is 7G perhaps.

- same for gems, just stock on them or buy some the days before changes.
make pvp gems, see the money flow in.

[horst]

dont know if i would go with the blog, but its nice to see, that total mmowned goes with each post and changing their point everytime. im on a server with bad raiding-conditions, so many ppl do heroics and theres a ton of frozen orbs. I´ve got myself arounf 1k orbs for 10g. So I will make profit with them eather, the day(s) before patch, at patch-day or some weeks later, when all the idiots saw that frostlotus is not this worthful anymore and invested the orbs in other orbs to craft stuff or shit like that. its impossible to hold the low prices for eternity that will be there after like 1-3 days after the patch. If u bought a lot of them for like 10g, i think u will at least make +100%, just grab urself a beer, sit tight and wait for the price-sweatspot, which will vary from server to server.

[TechnoKilla]

Ok so far this has worked wonders for me on my server(cept people caught on). Basically what you do is you spam trade chat buying all frozen orbs 10g each, stock up about 200. wait til the next day spam trade chat saying selling frozen orbs 20g(depends on the AH price atm usually 5g below works) GET THEM BEFORE THE PATCH. Wait another day and repeat step 1 and step 2. So far this has gotten me a lil over 6k gold in 1 day. If people try to call you out on what your doing just wait 4 hours for things to die down and start back up again

[Daojin]

I've Bought 250 of them from 9 to 20g each (13g average I think), do you think I'll loose gold?
Thx for the tips anyway, I stop buying them unless they are very cheap.

[Ikekudeyg]

If you are on my server...No I bumped up the price by about 20g about an hour after my post now the lowest price is 15g average 20g, and my pockets full . But if you want to make a smart move, look to where by the average price is higher than the average you paid (to be honest unless you remember what you paid for that average you listed is made up) you are making money. If you get lucky and you see the lowest price moves above the highest you paid then sell right away or lose gold. As long as you make profit of off the ones you bought for the most gold, then all the rest should be profit as well.