My conjecture based on roughly the last 72 hours (WoW Token)

[Veritable]

Timeline Key Points

Feb 6th at around 2:05 am :: The token price started climbing from 58,264 gold at a rate of 1.28% which was nothing suspicious. But a mere 2 hours later it was climbing already at around 2.15% and then held at 3.03% only 5 minutes later. This lasted until Feb 7th at around 10:15 am.

This is where it started to fall off, and it lost some steam.

Feb 7th around 11:25 am :: The token price peaked and the price started to come back down as fast as it went up. Interesting to note, it only goes down by 2.97% rather than the same upward swing that is possible. That is quite intriguing.

Feb 8th around 9:45 am :: The token price bottomed out back down around 61, 583 gold, and is now back on the rise. It is once again increasing around 3.03%

So what have we learned from what is happening with the wow token since the latest announcement?

Value and Devaluation

Blizzard has a cap on gains and losses in value of the WoW Token, and that value of the token goes down ever so slightly slower than if it were to raise in value. This could mean that if the same type of surge in price goes on, it might actually go higher over time. However, it will never go down to where it was because it will take less time for it to bottom out once again, so customers will see the value at whatever time they are checking the prices to maybe purchase or sell tokens. The same time period will not have the same valuation as the previous scaling trend.

When the token value goes up and comes back down slower, that time span is shifted to the right, later in the day. That way you would get a more accurate representation of the valuation of the token. However, that is not how the world works, and convincing the globe to fall in line is nonsensical. So therefore, what can we expect to see in the coming days/weeks as this calms down.

Trends

The current market trend of the token, and the devaluation caps makes the trends point towards "this is not done yet, not by a long shot.".

What I believe is going to start happening, is the token is going to go up and down like normal, but with an ever so slight increase in bottom price, while the top end goes up by a similar amount. How much is similar?

In 36 hours the moving average went up by ~1,700 gold per hour. While it took 22 hours to drop at ~2,400 gold per hour. Without knowing exactly how many tokens are on the market, it is really difficult to actually do any real hard math on this, but we can still do some very basic analysis using other time zones that are ahead of North America and have larger amounts of token users.

Taking a look at Korean realms, every 36 hours roughly, the bottom end of the Token is going up by about 1,000 gold. And the top end every 22 hours is actually coming down by around 6,000 gold.

In China, it took a mere 20 hours for the top end to come down a whopping 21,000 gold but still the bottom end is going up every 12-20 hours by around 10,000 gold. Similar trends there.

So in around 5 days, without taking into account the amount of tokens in stock (because we don't know) we have to assume that it is going to follow the same % of Moving Average of value. In the next 12 days, we can probably predict it to turn out as follows:

High of 84,097 gold
Low of 78, 597 gold

It will be really close to that, but probably off a little as the % of Moving Average actually changes based on the daily analysis. You will just have to keep paying attention and modifying your calculations to see how it goes.

[Cecu]

Blizzard are obviously "playing" with the WowToken prices across regions.

We can assume anything, but the truth is, its their game, and they do whatever they like to with it - including pushing the token price in the most profitable direction (for them).

[Veritable]

I don't know if they are. I mean I wouldn't rule it out, but if they intended it to be an actual living economy with some caps in place, it has been functioning as normal as far as I can see.

If they have hard caps on increase/decrease in the amount of gold a token is worth per hour, then it's evident there in the data. Unless Blizzard went and deleted all the tokens or something in the inventory just cause ... and gave free gold out ... hell, there might not even be tokens... but ya... no one really knows at this point LOL

[Veritable]

So as an update, it is calming down faster. It'll hit that targeted range probably in the next day or so. It's already 66k bottomend and 91k top end.