It's pretty simple... the projects which cause low to zero drama will always survive in the long run. Emulators like ArcEmu, Ascent, and the thousands of clones mostly resolve around people looking for fame or fortune, and this will never be sufficient to keep them alive.
MaNGOS and WCell do not come with drama. Check their forums. People are calm, and friendly. And you can actually get some insight into development, if you ask.
Personally I do think emulation will only survive in the long run if two conditions are met:
- - true open development. E.g. sharing how clients and patch changed get examined. MaNGOS and WCell both made a step in that direction. See sniffitzt and PacketAnalyzer. More of that would surely attract more awesome coders.
- - true community, like many other projects have. See what Ubuntu, Fedora, etc. invest to keep their community drama free. Sometimes more than into development itself.
MaNGOS and WCell ... the others sooner or later will RIP.
tbh i think mangos will do the best.
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I remember when MAME started and people were saying it wouldn't stick around. THe only emulator I've see that really died prematurely was Nestcle. There was a a decent PSX emulator too that crapped out but I forget the name at the moment.
I think emulators don't git their stride until the system they emulate died then with no changes "life carries on and on..."