With the recent nerfings, will the price of gold go up?

[karosh]

What do you think

[Fallinangel621]

nope it will drop to the bottom of everything.... because all the people saving for 13.06. and the rmah will explode that day

[karosh]

i meant like within the next day or so. gold will become worthless when rmah gets introduced.

[abusYn]

Yeah gold is already pretty much worthless since today's nerfs, kinda sucks but what are you gonna do?

[mckemo]

worthless? hmm they NERFED it, and did not increase .. Nerf= lower drop rates.. that measn there is less gold and that means that the prices neeeds to go higher since the botting needs more time.

[who knows]

What these nerfs did was reduce supply.

There are fewer players playing. This has also reduced supply.

There are probably more botters than before. This increases supply.

The price of decent items has decreased drastically, this was due to a surplus in supply.

This falling-out of most items has caused the market price to fall very very low. This has increased quantity demanded.

The quantity demanded was not equal to the quantity supplied, there is still a very large surplus.

This is all very obvious for the majority of items.

Now given what we know of the changes:

The majority of items are of a low price. Their quantity supplied vastly outnumbers quantity demanded (for example 900+ dps 2 handed weapons). There are simply too many 2 handers on the AH, nobody buys these as there are simply not enough people who want it.

As for the non-majority of items, in other words the very-well rolled items, are of very high demand, and will typically always have low supply.
This is because high-end rolled items (Example: a weapon that has 1000 tooltip dps AND 100% crit damage, Crit damage can scale from, if I recall correctly, 25-100% on Ilvl63 items.),
are always infrequently. The law of large numbers dictates that these items will be of low quantity, as their chance to be rolled so "perfectly" has astronomically low odds.

This confirms that there are a few items that will always have a very high demand, the "perfect or near-perfect" end game items.

It is these, and only these that causes there to be any value to gold at the end game.

With the onset of the RMAH soon, its anyone's guess if these high-end items disappear from the gold auction house or not.


To bring everything back to the original question, the supply of gold was reduced. This wont necessarily increase the demand for gold, because there isn't much there in the first place. I theorize there will be even less demand for gold when most of the good items will be sold on the RMAH exclusively.

So, no, the price of gold will not go up.

[gutekwitek]

even if they would nerfed it next more 50 or 80% prices of gold wont go up since people were farming alot when it was possible and i am sure that they stacked alot alot and one more time alot of gold and are ready for opeining RMAH to create gold auctions - gold will be worthless when RMAH will come in.