Halfus drake cycles

[bakafish]

This post is NOT MINE. All credit goes to Simca @ mmo-champion for the amazing work.
I just thought this would be incredibly useful for everyone.

Source Theory: Halfus is not Random

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I has a theory: Halfus Wyrmbreaker is not random.

I discovered, as many others before me, that the drakes are not random per raid ID - they're the same across your realm. I also figured out quickly that they're the same in 10-man and 25-man (easy to test, just check, run out, switch difficulties, check again).

Based on comments and forum threads on here, I also figured out (as many others have) that they're the same across regions. US and EU seemed to have different combinations.

So I figured, just in case, let me look through World of Logs and see if it is possible that there is a pattern. I mean what's the worst that could happen, I waste two hours for nothing? (I do that a lot.)

The results were... interesting. I later tried to add in TW and KR to confirm my analysis, but their drakes appeared to be the same as the EU at first glance (note: I could be wrong on TW and KR, I only looked at maybe 3-5 TW and KR logs compared to 50+ of the others).

Weeks:
Week 1: 12/7 - 12/13
Week 2: 12/14 - 12/20
Week 3: 12/21 - 12/27
Week 4: 12/28 - 1/3
Week 5: 1/4 - 1/10
Week 6: 1/11 - 1/17
Week 7: 1/18 - 1/24
Week 8: 1/25 - 1/31

EDIT/NOTE: For EU, all these weeks are off by one day due to the Wednesday reset vs Tuesday reset, so:
12/8 - 12/14, 12/15 - 12/21, 12/22 - 12/28, 12/29 - 1/4, 1/5 - 1/11, 1/12 - 1/18, 1/19 - 1/25, 1/26 - 2/1
are the correct weeks, in order from 1 to 8 for EU guilds. Sorry about that.

US Drakes by Week
Storm Rider, Time Warden, Whelps
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Whelps
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Whelps
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Time Warden
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Time Warden
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Time Warden
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Slate Dragon

EU/KR/TW Drakes by Week
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Time Warden
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Storm Rider
Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps
Nether Scion, Time Warden, Whelps
Storm Rider, Time Warden, Whelps
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Whelps
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Whelps
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps

Potential Drake Cycle Pattern
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Time Warden (Week 5 in US) (Week 9 in EU/KR/TW)
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Time Warden (Week 6 in US) (Week 10 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Time Warden (Week 7 in US) (Week 1 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Slate Dragon (Week 8 in US) (Week 2 in EU/KR/TW)
Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps (Week 9 in US) (Week 3 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Time Warden, Whelps (Week 10 in US) (Week 4 in EU/KR/TW)
Storm Rider, Time Warden, Whelps (Week 1 in US) (Week 5 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Whelps (Week 2 in US) (Week 6 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Whelps (Week 3 in US) (Week 7 in EU/KR/TW)
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps (Week 4 in US) (Week 8 in EU/KR/TW)

This week is Week 8. Here at the ones you should have had (or will have, based on when you raid this week):
US: Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Slate Dragon (based on my guild's logs and the rest of my server)
For EU, other. guilds'. logs. confirm. this: (note all five totally different servers, and differing difficulty modes)
EU: Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps


Next week is Week 9, and the bolded ones are me trying to predict the future.

This means that If I'm right, next week's drakes will be:
US: Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps
EU/KR/TW: Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Time Warden

[DrWho1988]

Inb4 thread closing. Linking to that site is a big no no on here last I heard

[bakafish]

Sorry. Still new here so I wasnt aware. Just trying to help out :\
Can I ask why is this not allowed?

[Garneth]

LOL why is mmo-champ a no no

[inj]

Thanks! This saved me the whole second of going to the front page of MMO-Champ.

[DrWho1988]

LOL why is mmo-champ a no no

Honestly I don't know, I almost got banned from shoutbawx for linking some thread on there

[Vixxi]

It amazes me how stupid contributors are sometimes, of course you "almost" got banned for linking it in shoutbox. It's not there for spam and useless posts.

[CheeseProphet]

It amazes me how stupid contributors are sometimes, of course you "almost" got banned for linking it in shoutbox. It's not there for spam and useless posts.

A link to a relevant topic about something is spam and useless?
wow you're much better, really...

[DrWho1988]

It amazes me how stupid contributors are sometimes, of course you "almost" got banned for linking it in shoutbox. It's not there for spam and useless posts.

Actually if I recall it wasn't spam, it was actually a useful post that pertained to a topic that was going on at that moment. I was warned that trying to circumvent the filters (aka changing the link so it's not blocked) would result in a ban from the shoutbox. So please, get your facts straight and stop talking out your ass before you look like an idiot.

[EcHoEs]

It was blocked before. It's not anymore, so I doubt that it's bannable offense of posting it anymore (I have no idea though. KuR asked me to link thread from MMO-champ a while ago in bawx too.)