[Casino] Fun and Simple Moneymaker!

[elky]

Hey guys with all the casino hype I was wondering on what would be a simpler system than the roll casinos and still be fun. Here's what I thought of:

First of all (and this is the hardest part) you must acquire this:
[Titanium Seal of Dalaran]


You get that through the The Coin Master achievement.

Afterwards you can start to advertise this simple coin flipping game:

Guess the next 2 coin flips, get double your wager!

As far as math is concerned here are the possible outcomes of 2 coin flips:
HH
HT
TH
TT

Therefore they have a 1/4 = 25% to win which means you have 3/4=75% to win.

Your expected PROFIT however, is 25%, or .25g per 1g bet using this formula:

EV(1g) = 1(3/4) - 2(1/4) = 0.25 (Thanks to Lolk2)

I have not tried it out because I don't have the achievement yet but I am sure it would work quite nicely.

Remember, they have to predict the side for each flip, that means HT and TH are different wagers.

Let me know how it turns out

[_duracell]

Hey guys with all the casino hype I was wondering on what would be a simpler system than the roll casinos and still be fun. Here's what I thought of:

First of all (and this is the hardest part) you must acquire this:
[Titanium Seal of Dalaran]


You get that through the The Coin Master achievement.

Afterwards you can start to advertise this simple coin flipping game:

Guess the next 2 coin flips, get double your wager!

As far as math is concerned here are the possible outcomes of 2 coin flips:
HH
HT
TH
TT

Therefore they have a 1/4 = 25% to win which means you have 3/4=75% to make profit.

I have not tried it out yet because I don't the achievement yet but I am sure it would work quite nicely.

Remember, they have to predict the side for each flip, that means HT and TH are different wagers.

Let me know how it turns out

Well, your expected profit is actually 25% since you're paying out 2x on success:

EV(1g) = 1(3/4) - 2(1/4) = 0.25

Still a great profit margin, though. Nice idea!

[SuperChickenofDoom]

Or instead of spending time for an ach you can /roll 2.

/sigh at people trying to take my post and change is so they seem like they contributed.

[Canizzz]

Yeah, agreed with Super

[elky]

I'm sorry you feel that way superchicken but I read your post again and I don't see what I exactly took from you? As for the /roll 2 thing, I think it's much more funner and original in WoW to play with an in-game coin rather than the boring old /roll2...

It's like saying why run on a threadmill when you can run outside. Same action, different way of doing it.

[_duracell]

I personally didn't know about the coin. I think it does add some flavor into the gambling.

So thanks for posting it elky. Now the only question is whether I have the desire to fish up all the coins for the achievement! lol

[Vindicated]

Nice, simple guide. Earns my +Rep easy.

[Eaassas]

Don't be emo Chicken, even if he got his idea from you he made a really nice twist to it, diserves some appreciation...

[Justink15]

Well, your expected profit is actually 25% since you're paying out 2x on success:

EV(1g) = 1(3/4) - 2(1/4) = 0.25

Still a great profit margin, though. Nice idea!

Chances of losing 1g ....1/4
Chances of gaining 1g ...3/4

3/4-1/4= 2/4 = .50 profit margin

i think you calculated trips

[_duracell]

Chances of losing 1g ....1/4
Chances of gaining 1g ...3/4

3/4-1/4= 2/4 = .50 profit margin

i think you calculated trips

Well, if the payout is double the wager, that means the casino has a 1/4 chance of losing 2g for every 1g bet. You have to take that into account.

[RacerX]

Just be careful as the TOS states that lotteries are not allowed so I would assume that in some sort of sick twisted nooblike manner someone could possibly report you...though if they did they would be in serious need of a life.

[Justink15]

Well, if the payout is double the wager, that means the casino has a 1/4 chance of losing 2g for every 1g bet. You have to take that into account.

but half of what the person wins in 2x is their original bet, they trade the casino first. You may be right i just cant grasp 2x when half of it is already their money.

[_duracell]

but half of what the person wins in 2x is their original bet, they trade the casino first. You may be right i just cant grasp 2x when half of it is already their money.

I look at it as though the 1g is not the casino's until that betting transaction is complete, because there is a chance the player will win. If the bet never took place, the casino would still be x-1 and the player x+1

I guess it doesn't really matter if 1g of that payout is the original bet. When the casino loses, 2x the original bet (2g) is being lost from the casino and gained by the player anyway you look at it.

[Justink15]

I look at it as though the 1g is not the casino's until that betting transaction is complete, because there is a chance the player will win. If the bet never took place, the casino would still be x-1 and the player x+1

I guess it doesn't really matter if 1g of that payout is the original bet. When the casino loses, 2x the original bet (2g) is being lost from the casino and gained by the player anyway you look at it.

ok what if your odds were 1-65 loses, 66-100 wins 2x

Your calculation -1 (65/100) + 2 (35/100)= +5??????? disadvantage no way?
My way -1 (65/100) +1 (35/100)= -30 a huge advantage for casino! Which would be the case.

In your other post...

Rolling 1 or 100 = 4x payout, chance of 2/100
Rolling 85-90 = 3x payout, chance of 6/100
Rolling 65-80 = 2x payout, chance of 16/100

Now, if the player makes a 1g bet, he has the following outcomes:

His chances of losing 1g = 76/100

Chances of gaining 2g = 16/100

Chances of gaining 3g = 6/100

Chances of gaining 4g = 2/100

So the player has an Expected Value of -1*76/100 +2*16/100 +3*6/100 +4*2/100 = -76/100 +32/100 +18/100 +8/100 = -18/100 = -.18

This means that the player may expect to lose about .18g for every 1g he bets, 1.8g for every 10g bet, 18g for every 100g bet, etc. A profit margin, for you, of +18%.

Missing 81-84 , and why -76/100 when 2x is 65-80? and odds are too good for the 4x and 3x you have there. I am not trying to call you out i +rep this post, just trying to figure it out.

[_duracell]

ok what if your odds were 1-65 loses, 66-100 wins 2x

Your calculation -1 (65/100) + 2 (35/100)= +5??????? disadvantage no way?
My way -1 (65/100) +1 (35/100)= -30 a huge advantage for casino! Which would be the case.

In your other post...



Missing 81-84 , and why -76/100 when 2x is 65-80? and odds are too good for the 4x and 3x you have there. I am not trying to call you out i +rep this post, just trying to figure it out.

To avoid confusion, let's look at this from the point of view of the player.

If the players bets 1g, he has potential two outcomes:

1-65 : Lose 1g
66-100 : Gain 2g

The expected value for his 1g bet is indeed = 2(35/100) - 1(65/100) = +.05, which is an advantage to the player, and a disadvantage to the casino. All I'm doing here is multiplying the chance of winning with the change in value of winning, and adding it to the product of the chance of losing with the change in value of losing. That gives you the expected value of that bet.

Missing 81-84

It is accounted for in his .76 chance of losing 1g.

and why -76/100 when 2x is 65-80? and odds are too good for the 4x and 3x you have there.

Not sure what you mean there.