Sell your essences and tomes now. Economics is about to rape some of you.

[Huntermoose]

I know some of you have been hoarding tomes, essences and brimstone.

I would like to point out that a large majority of the people with massive amounts of gold (like myself) bought as much of these things as we could knowing that the prices would go up.

Here is a little known tip. Everyone that bought these items, will be listing them over the next few days after the patch is released. This is the worst thing you could do, everyone that has these items will notice the definite drop in prices by tomorrow. Some will save their items for later, but that is again another fault because of the obvious two things coming to fruition.

Inferno enemies will now drop 4x as many blues, and 4x as many yellows. It doesn't take a genius to realize, that means MORE essences, MORE tears, and theoretically even though it has only a chance to produce, MORE brimstone.

That alone means that these essences will be fed into the economy at 4x the rate they are now, but wait! there is more!

Paragon leveling!

4x the blues, 4x the rares, and everyone will have 100% MF in the first two days.

Theoretically, this means that 8x the essences and tears will be in the economy than before.

I do not have the math for Tomes of Secret however.

Moral of the story? Sell now before the big players start posting their billions of gold worth of essences.

(I just dropped by 230,000 essences at 1600, prepare for the essences dropping to 500 by the end of the week)

Sell now before you make the mistake many others will.

[Parog]

A quality post, right there.

[gatoqueri]

Indeed. I don't think it will be "that quickly", but that will happen for sure.
Eventually, even legendary recipes prices will drop.

[Huntermoose]

People are buying them right now because they believe come tomorrow the prices will be sky high, but like with anything price based, *supply and demand*

Demand went up because there are new legendary items that can be crafted, coming out tomorrow.
Supply went down because people knew this was coming, and bought them dirt cheap to sell at a later date.

Tomorrow....
Demand will stay about the same, because people will want to craft the new legendary items.
Supply will go up, because prices will be better than what the essences were bought for initially, causing supply to outweigh the demand, and lowering prices.

[kindbudz]

i think you're really undervaluing the initial demand...and the demand over the first 2-4 weeks

but i have no skin in the game so im just armchair quarterbacking

[Huntermoose]

The legendary items have been posted, anyone can go and look at the changes to the crafted legendary items, which hilariously... most of them are unchanged.

If I'm wrong, I may have cut myself short on gold, but I'm willing to take that risk when I know specific botters that literally have 200-300k essences and they will saturate the market with them.

[Trotz]

i think you're really undervaluing the initial demand...and the demand over the first 2-4 weeks

but i have no skin in the game so im just armchair quarterbacking

Well thats the question right there isnt it. I myself have not stocked up on anything but i think most guys who craft on a regular basis have. The Guys who want something craftet wont really matter. So you have a "few" guys who will be in dire need of icecream errr mats and a bulk of guys who stocked up on mats like madmen.
My guess is that the market will collapse for a few days, everything exept brimstone will drop permanently (the new leveling system + better dropquotes for blues will take care of that alone) and brimstones will take a initial drop (my guess is 150k-200k) to slowly rise again.

At least thats what im banking on Well see though

[n00bmasta]

Agree with most of it except Brimstones. There will be supply from inventory (flippers and hoarders) but thats about it. Nearly ALL the new >i61 legendaries are good. Too good to salvage.
There still will be some supply from salvage of legacy legendaries, but that will be a limited supply.
As time goes on, people will realize they need more brimstones and there is no supply!

[awp2004]

one thign id like to know bout this paragon level. If you reached lvl 100 (3+300%mf), is all your mf gear then overlooked. I mean mf is gonne be capped at 300.

[Trotz]

Can someone from the US be so kind and keep us EU guys updated how the brimstone market is developing once servers go live? (Cant log into the US on patchday)
Might safe me some bucks if i happen to be more of an idiot then i think..

[IGG]

I'd like to know some news about mats too. Anybody lease tell us!

[Huntermoose]

Brimstones have dropped from last night at 480,000 to 380,000 currently.
Tomes have dropped about 100g. @ 1150
Essences are staying strong @ 1515
Tears are higher @ 271

As to how well they are selling atm, no clue. As more people log in to sell, I expect drops.

[Trotz]

thanks for the update!
i kind of panicked and bought 300 at 280k each (doh), but i guess ill let it play out from now on.

[Huntermoose]

As predicted, all things are now under what they were selling for last night.

Essences down to 336k
Tomes 1k
Essences 1400
Tears 170

Glad I didn't take the risk.

[TehVoyager]

tbh on sunday night i id'd all my Unid rares i've been saving because i finally clued in that that market is never going to repopulate, and sold 100+ of both and pulled in a decent chunk of coin.