Gold price dropping to $0.25/million tommorrow

[Jaerin]

You forget there are a lot more people willing to sell on the sanctioned market than on the black market.

You will see temporary rises as people buy new stuff and whatnot, but it will go back down.

[anton000]

You forget there are a lot more people willing to sell on the sanctioned market than on the black market.

You will see temporary rises as people buy new stuff and whatnot, but it will go back down.

You may have forgotten that your original claim was "$.025/million tom"

I agree completely with what you say above regarding people wanting to buy new stuff hence gold's still now continuously rising. But alot more are getting bought outside game imho, fact is gold doesn't get moved that fast in RMAH. Also dont forget that the real price is driven not only by how much a seller is willing to sell, but also at how much a buyer is willing to buy.

Still though a huge uncertainty lies on this weekend. Huge influx of weekend players, and prolly a drain too as Saturday is offical pre launch of GW2, if im not mistaken.

Sometime in the first week of September, when "mr. athene" releases his first to paragon 100 video. We'll prolly see the price of gold devalue. But here's a real kicker, when people start hitting paragon 50, gold supply will at least double, viable item drops would also increase. So you would think gold and item prices are destined to drop, but people have already anchored on a selling price point. And when a player has already mentally anchored; it will be hard for him to lower prices significantly from his anchor compared to how easier it is for him to price an item with better stats, higher even when there's alot of supply. So cheaper gold with uber priced items, hopefully it will balance itself out, but this is a huge uncertainty looming over the immediate future of gold.

[gatoqueri]

gold will just drop to, blackmarketprice/.85/.85, that price was pretty stable for a reason. and people wont sell on RMAH for less then what they would get away from it. (maybe slightly less because its easier)

'''
Maybe it will stabilize, BUT thats something people told since D3 launch.... "gold will stabilize for 40$ the million"... "will stabilize at 8$"... "will stabilize at 2$"... and know that it will stabilize at a few cents under a dollar... well, I still think it will stabilize at a little lower than that, unless they put some real gold drainers in the game.

You forget there are a lot more people willing to sell on the sanctioned market than on the black market.

You will see temporary rises as people buy new stuff and whatnot, but it will go back down.

Thats true. In the first days of RMAH, gold could was sold in bulks for 2.50 and that caused the black market gold prices to rise near 1.85 (when it was reaching 1.20 again after the "Immortal Bot" crisis"). A few days later, gold wasnt sold that easy in RMAH and the prices outside the game dropped.

[yungmilkbag]

'''
Maybe it will stabilize, BUT thats something people told since D3 launch.... "gold will stabilize for 40$ the million"... "will stabilize at 8$"... "will stabilize at 2$"... and know that it will stabilize at a few cents under a dollar... well, I still think it will stabilize at a little lower than that, unless they put some real gold drainers in the game.



Thats true. In the first days of RMAH, gold could was sold in bulks for 2.50 and that caused the black market gold prices to rise near 1.85 (when it was reaching 1.20 again after the "Immortal Bot" crisis"). A few days later, gold wasnt sold that easy in RMAH and the prices outside the game dropped.

i never gave a price it would stabilize at, but the price cannot go below whatever the minimum amount chinese farmers needs to make is... obviously I have no idea what this is, but it seemed like pre 1.04 0.9-0.95 was stable blackmarket price, but now way more people will be using the RMAH for this so it will drop a bit below that... definetly won't hit 0.25cents cause that cuts chinese farmers profits in a quarter which theres no way is sustainable.

[mrstrong]

i have sold all of my gold because i just want out of the d3 market
but i think that gold prices will begin to rise as more and more bots get banned
it takes more effort to level new accounts now because of the game limit

correct me if i am wrong

[DiamondStarFall]

prices will nw be more or less peg to the rmah~

[Mawic]

Gold prices will be fine. You will be able to sell it for at least 1.50

What happens in an economy where a fkton of currency is produced each day and not nearly enough is taken away (repair bills)? You get extreme inflation.

1 week after release I sold gold for 30€ per million softcore. That price is now 0.6€ per million. If hellbuddy gets online the prices will continue to drop untill they're at like .3€ maybe even .25€.

Also consider that people that get the new lvl 70 or even 100 will have innate 210%-300% gold find which means that even the average Joe will be able to have a 100k gph just farming for hes regular gear in inferno, so hes repair bills are easily covered...something we used to earn money on.

And botting now is tricky, the RU-accounts are pulling a lot more heat from blizzard bot-filters. A simple calculation will show you:
RU-key: 18€
goldprices: 0,6€ per M
This means that you need to earn 30M to just break even. Earning 30M takes around 5 days of botting if you earn circa 7M per day. Add one extra day because you just bought gear for 7M. That's 5 days, with 2 days for leveling. That's a week. If you're lucky you can maybe survive with your bot for two weeks. That's 7*7*0,6€ profit per account= 30ish €.
Still pretty decent if you ask me, say you got 20 bots that's 600€ per week, I'd settle for that until the IRS comes and audits your ass for not paying taxes (omg there are taxes? but im a child...)
So factoring in the taxes for example Sweden which are around 50% (yes 50%, this isn't a job so there are corporate taxes etc...and don't forget the value added tax to your product...) I'd say it's pretty much game over exactly now. Half the amount of profit means that the bot barely survives to break even, in good cases.


I'm sorry to say, but it's time to move to Guild Wars 2 and hope for a fresh start and then after that's done move back to good old world of warcraft

[Soullinker]

What happens in an economy where a fkton of currency is produced each day and not nearly enough is taken away (repair bills)? You get extreme inflation.

1 week after release I sold gold for 30€ per million softcore. That price is now 0.6€ per million. If hellbuddy gets online the prices will continue to drop untill they're at like .3€ maybe even .25€.

Also consider that people that get the new lvl 70 or even 100 will have innate 210%-300% gold find which means that even the average Joe will be able to have a 100k gph just farming for hes regular gear in inferno, so hes repair bills are easily covered...something we used to earn money on.

And botting now is tricky, the RU-accounts are pulling a lot more heat from blizzard bot-filters. A simple calculation will show you:
RU-key: 18€
goldprices: 0,6€ per M
This means that you need to earn 30M to just break even. Earning 30M takes around 5 days of botting if you earn circa 7M per day. Add one extra day because you just bought gear for 7M. That's 5 days, with 2 days for leveling. That's a week. If you're lucky you can maybe survive with your bot for two weeks. That's 7*7*0,6€ profit per account= 30ish €.
Still pretty decent if you ask me, say you got 20 bots that's 600€ per week, I'd settle for that until the IRS comes and audits your ass for not paying taxes (omg there are taxes? but im a child...)
So factoring in the taxes for example Sweden which are around 50% (yes 50%, this isn't a job so there are corporate taxes etc...and don't forget the value added tax to your product...) I'd say it's pretty much game over exactly now. Half the amount of profit means that the bot barely survives to break even, in good cases.


I'm sorry to say, but it's time to move to Guild Wars 2 and hope for a fresh start and then after that's done move back to good old world of warcraft

I agree about most of this. If i may add the estimate that people with 200%-300% GF due to Paragorn levels will gain 100k GPH is way off. With my trash gear for GF (280%) just running from Tristran to the wretched queen quest (first quest in game ) is 200k GPH. And keep in mind that half of path is getting from the WP in town to the very 1-st pack. With my 20k DPS gear i 2 shot the zombies there. I am writing all this to so you can have a base of comparison when you imagine the following scenario of armed to the teeth characters with 100kdps and god knows how much HP running around in densely packed mob areas (Core or Areat, FoS and the such where you kill almost all the time) Those characters will also run with 300% MF besides 300% GF and up to 375% with 5 stacks. Sooo the 100 k GPH is way off.

Also the 7Mil Per day is possible if you find a place to bot 24 hour with 300 GPH, a thing that i find amazingly hard to find. The problem come from the game limit that Blizzard made, forcing us to make longer routes. As of now i am farming for 250 GPH with my GF that i said. I am sure that some people could bot for more, but the average Joe will not be able to. HOWEVER botting 24/7 will be a sure flag from Blizzard. People have reported being banned quite fast... as soon as hitting lv 60(15-20) hours not even a day.

Maybe you can survive if you bot 5-6 hours a day but that will make the profits virtually non existent. Unless you have 3-4 accounts so you can switch them and bot with them.


Also the tax part amazed me. How can they prove that your receiving money from a business or not as gift. After all they pass PayPal and then your bank. I never paid any taxes even when i received 3x the minimal salary in my country from WoW.

[Mawic]

I agree about most of this. If i may add the estimate that people with 200%-300% GF due to Paragorn levels will gain 100k GPH is way off. With my trash gear for GF (280%) just running from Tristran to the wretched queen quest (first quest in game ) is 200k GPH. And keep in mind that half of path is getting from the WP in town to the very 1-st pack. With my 20k DPS gear i 2 shot the zombies there. I am writing all this to so you can have a base of comparison when you imagine the following scenario of armed to the teeth characters with 100kdps and god knows how much HP running around in densely packed mob areas (Core or Areat, FoS and the such where you kill almost all the time) Those characters will also run with 300% MF besides 300% GF and up to 375% with 5 stacks. Sooo the 100 k GPH is way off.

Also the 7Mil Per day is possible if you find a place to bot 24 hour with 300 GPH, a thing that i find amazingly hard to find. The problem come from the game limit that Blizzard made, forcing us to make longer routes. As of now i am farming for 250 GPH with my GF that i said. I am sure that some people could bot for more, but the average Joe will not be able to. HOWEVER botting 24/7 will be a sure flag from Blizzard. People have reported being banned quite fast... as soon as hitting lv 60(15-20) hours not even a day.

Maybe you can survive if you bot 5-6 hours a day but that will make the profits virtually non existent. Unless you have 3-4 accounts so you can switch them and bot with them.


Also the tax part amazed me. How can they prove that your receiving money from a business or not as gift. After all they pass PayPal and then your bank. I never paid any taxes even when i received 3x the minimal salary in my country from WoW.

Good response to my post. I was very positive about the numbers in my post, my bots generally just do around 250GPH...

About the tax part, well for people that earn maybe 500-1000€ a month they're probably not going to do anything. But if you start earning maybe 3000-5000€...the IRS is going to notice and they're going to be like...hmm...wtf...They will then contact paypal and get your information from them and they'll then see that you're getting all your money from Blizzard Entertainment...With 5 minutes of research you are now tax deductible.

Its quite interesting how this online market will evolve with the decades. I think when we're all old men we'll look back at this time and say "wow people really didnt have a fkn clue"...

I read a very interesting paper about how items dropped from monsters mimic the way a lottery works. There's a chance associated to it and there's a cost to be able to play. So say you win a Ferrari in a lottery, you're instantly taxed on that Ferrari based on what it's worth. It does not matter if you sell the car or keep it, be ready to pay the taxes.
So...the same logic should thus apply to video games, a bad ass weapon of unimaginable godliness drops. You should now also be taxed on said weapons current value.

[voidlife]

^^^ No, taxing should happen when its traded, not when its dropped and picked up!!
in stock markets, values goes up every second, that does mean you pay tax every second.. you pay tax after trading...

example, mark zuck paid taxes after sale of stocks, not every year based on the worth of his stocks..
you understand?

[R2Pleasent]

^^^ No, taxing should happen when its traded, not when its dropped and picked up!!
in stock markets, values goes up every second, that does mean you pay tax every second.. you pay tax after trading...

example, mark zuck paid taxes after sale of stocks, not every year based on the worth of his stocks..
you understand?

Actually, not quite. You must pay taxes each year based on your net capital gains. For example, if my stocks are worth 100K at start of the year, then increase in value to 125K, I need to pay tax on the 25K increase in my portfolio. It does not matter if I decide to sell the stocks or not. The exemption to this are things like Retirement funds, which are shielded from tax until you retire. Mark Zuckerberg had to sell stocks just to pay his taxes for 2011.

However, the odds that virtual items like MMORPG gold / gear will be treated like stocks is very unlikely. They would need to be considered as an investment, which they do not fit the criteria for. You could create a company that trades Virtual products, then sell stocks in that company, which would be considered an investment. But this would have no effect on you playing Diablo 3 and finding a sword valued @ $100. Instead, it is much more similar to a lottery, as mentioned before. Sure, the sword will lose value over time. Same goes with a Ferrari. You have the choice to sell it at the point you receive it, whether you choose to do so or not is irrelevant.

[x00x]

you dont pay capital gains till you sell an equity fwiw...

[somaliasky]

you dont pay capital gains till you sell an equity fwiw...

I was gonna say this too. You need a realization event for tax purpose. He`s got a bunch other crappy arguments too. Anyone who took a semester of tax law, or tax accounting would've known better,

[DiamondStarFall]

Mark my words. $0.25 within 2 weeks.

It might not happen instantly but until there is something that is pulling gold out of the market at a decent clip the price will precipitously fall. Gem prices are already well below $1/million so nothing to prop the price up above that.

gold price is still high~

[wootpeng]

gold price is still high~

lol all those armchair economists spreading doom and gloom. How wrong they were...