[v7.6] [INTERNATIONAL] [Resu] PrimalAncientProbabilityPlugin menu

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  1. #106
    alternate_'s Avatar Member
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    search for "x" or "y" in the code

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  2. #107
    ivy733's Avatar Member
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    Does anyone know if this Plugin currently works with the latest update?

  3. #108
    ripton07's Avatar Member
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    Originally Posted by ivy733 View Post
    Does anyone know if this Plugin currently works with the latest update?
    Как работал так и работает, берет статистику из папки stat_tracker, но там неучитываются предметы от Кадалы и из Куба кубани.

  4. #109
    Vern1701's Avatar Active Member
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    Originally Posted by ripton07 View Post
    Как работал так и работает, берет статистику из папки stat_tracker, но там неучитываются предметы от Кадалы и из Куба кубани.
    English, please? My ability to read Russian is nonexistent.

  5. #110
    deimudda69's Avatar Member
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    Originally Posted by Vern1701 View Post
    English, please? My ability to read Russian is nonexistent.
    As it worked and works, it takes statistics from the stat_tracker folder, but items from Kadala and from Cuba Kuban are not taken into account there.

  6. #111
    RNN's Avatar Legendary
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    I made a small modification to avoid a problem with memory usage (small amounts of memory are continually reserved that are never freed, and memory usage by TH gets too high over time). Basically I have moved lines 46-61

    plugins\Resu\PrimalAncientProbabilityPlugin.cs

  7. #112
    roennev's Avatar Member
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    The chance never increases. the way it works is: every drop has a set % chance to be Legendary, ancient or Primal, so lets say for ancient drops at 10%. That dont mean for every 10 items you are getting a ancient item guaranteed. the chance for every item to be ancient is still just 10%.

  8. #113
    alternate_'s Avatar Member
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    Originally Posted by roennev View Post
    The chance never increases. the way it works is: every drop has a set % chance to be Legendary, ancient or Primal, so lets say for ancient drops at 10%. That dont mean for every 10 items you are getting a ancient item guaranteed. the chance for every item to be ancient is still just 10%.
    you might wanna rethink it. let's say you have reforged an item 20x in the cube and never got an ancient, then you can be quite sure that you are about to two ancients really soon. it works the other way around, when you got 2 subsequent ancients then you can be pretty sure that the next 20 rolls will be legendary only.

  9. #114
    kingnothing7's Avatar Member
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    Originally Posted by User5981 View Post
    Are you sure you understand probability theory?
    If the chance that a legendary can be ancient is 10% and you already had 1000 tries without success then your chance for it to happen is higher, because the 10% has to occur at a moment otherwise the 10% chance doesn't exist. Pure logic.
    Originally Posted by alternate_ View Post
    you might wanna rethink it. let's say you have reforged an item 20x in the cube and never got an ancient, then you can be quite sure that you are about to two ancients really soon. it works the other way around, when you got 2 subsequent ancients then you can be pretty sure that the next 20 rolls will be legendary only.
    This is absolutely false. This is a famous logical fallacy known as the gambler's fallacy. If you or anyone else disputes this, please read at least the lead section of this: Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

    Each event (drop) is statistically independent, meaning one drop does not affect the probability of another (unless the programmers of the game specifically wrote code to make that not the case, which I have seen no evidence for). If you get 100 regular legendary drops in a row, the odds of the 101st legendary being ancient is still 10%. As is the 102nd, and 103rd, and so on. It is always 10%, every single drop. All the rolls are statistically independent of one another. The reason your actual drop percentage for ancients winds up being near 10% (after a sufficiently large sample size) is because of the law of large numbers (Law of large numbers - Wikipedia), not due to some fluctuating probability voodoo that you guys are talking about.

    Sorry, but the entire idea behind this plugin is nonsense.
    Last edited by kingnothing7; 12-23-2020 at 02:19 AM.

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